I arrived in Belgrade one day earlier than I had originally planned, on Thursday night, as Osijek and Vukovar were highly disappointing. On friday morning I checked into the hostel I originally booked and set out to check out the city.
Belgrade is far and away the largest city in the region. I don't know about population, but just arriving in the city via bus the scale was impressive. Luckily, the main walking district, which is all I really saw, is near both the main bus station and the hostel. My first few days consisted mostly as sightseeing as it was the weekend, and no one in the Balkans likes to "work" during the weekend. I planned to leave Belgrade on Monday, so this left me with little time to actually meet with my contacts, Professor Mladen Lazic and two of his PhD candidates. Belgrade is honestly strictly a party city, that is the basis of the city's tourism, and the sightseeing was average. The locals in Serbia have been much colder towards English speakers. They claim to not speak English, but will respond to you in English if you push them. They, for the most part, have mastered the art of the dirty look. The hostel and nice restaurants have been hospitable, but the little bakeries, fast food shops, and museums have all featured people that were not happy to see English speakers. Not quite like Bosnia and Croatia.
That being said, my contacts were extremely happy to talk to me. Professor Mladen Lazic and his two Ph.D. candidates provided me with excellent material. Here is a general summary of some of the more interesting points:
They said that nationalism is just as bad in Croatia as in Serbia (opposite of what Croats will tell you).
A study from 2005 in Serbia showed a decrease in authoritarianism and traditionalism, but nationalism has remained steady. The same situation remains in Croatia if you look at the general orientation of the people.
The capability of nationalistic mobilization remains, but will not happen given the current economic situation and the conditions of the EU. However, the general feeling of the population has not changed much and under the right circumstances, nationalist mobilization could still occur in Serbia and Croatia.
Professor Lazic stressed the point that only about 10% of the population (15% in a study in 1989 in Croatia) can be considered nationalist. However, it is not this 10-15% that matters, it is those who can be affected by this nationalist 10-15%.
In Serbia there has been a general progression when it comes to Ratko Mladic from great hero, to just leader, to officer gentleman, to great military thinker that helped the Serbs end the war without heavy losses.
I asked Professor Lazic about my economic theory that when the economy is good, it is easier to mobilize the people of Serbia and Croatia. He said that he did not think it was this simple. He believes that the economy can play a role, but it must combine with several other factors in order for nationalist mobilization to occur. Professor Lazic used the mobilization of the 1990s as an example. He said that these factors may repeat themselves in some form, or new factors may arise, but the economy alone is not a mobilizer in and of itself (which is not what I was suggesting).
The first factor he described was the presence of authoritarianism, though not necessarily in its purest form. He said that Croats and Serbs are disposed to follow strong leaders. The people of the Balkans gravitate towards and need strong leaders, otherwise the entire society is disorganized and inefficient. Milosevic and Tudjman, just like Tito before them, provided this strong leadership and charisma that mesmerizes the Balkan people.
The second factor he described was the fall of one type of collectivism. In the late 80s, socialism provided Serbs and Croats with a collective identity. However, with the break up of Yugoslavia and the rejection of socialism, many former Yugoslavs lacked a collective identity. In the very late 80s and early 90s this void was filled by nationalism. However, in recent years, as the countries have distanced themselves further from socialism, collectivism has faded. The Ph.D. students attest that there is now a more individualistic mindset prevalent in Serbs and Croats. This could possibly change if a more assertive leader were to win office in either country.
The third mobilizing factor (and a factor that vilified Serbia to much of the west) was the issue of justice (Milosevic) vs. democracy (Tudjman). These two words were used countless times by the respective leaders and provided rally points for Serbs and Croats. Croatia fought for democracy, while Serbia fought for justice. This was a shrewd and brilliant move by Tudjman, because there is no doubt, in retrospect, that Tudjman was fighting for democracy as much as the Klu Klux Klan fights for civil rights. However, with the Cold War still ripe in the memories of the West, democracy was a buzz word, and any self professed democrat earned the trust and alliance of the West and especially the United States. This not only polarized the "us vs. them" feeling, but also created a "new order" vs. "old order" dynamic in which the West favored the new.
When these factors combined with the fact that the economy was deteriorating, mobilization occurred. Lazic believes that when the economy is on the downswing or good, it is easy to catch the attention of the people to mobilize for nationalist reasons. If the economy had been very bad, or getting better during the early 90s, it would have been much harder to convince people to forget about earning money and focus on the differences between Serbs and Croats. If you connect political radical elite with the people, and another mobilizing factor, and there are no limiting factors (see economy) that is when there is a problem according to Professor Lazic. However, given the current economic climate and issue of corruption (the top to political issues and two limiting factors) Professor Lazic does not see nationalistic issues boiling up.
Following Belgrade, I took a bus to Niš, in the southern part of Serbia, just 100 km from Priština.
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